Despite declining orders from the automotive industry, and a sharp drop in orders at the end of 2008, U.S. robotics products manufacturers should do well this year if they can expand beyond automakers and into consumer robotics, non-automated heavy industry, and service robotics, studies predict.
Orders from North American companies in 2008 were 21 percent lower than in 2007, though total revenue stemming from them dropped only 16 percent. Orders from outside North America improved the year somewhat; counting those sales, total shipments dropped only 18 percent and revenue dropped 15 percent.
Of particular concern for forecasters looking at 2009, however, was a sharper drop in orders placed by North American companied during the fourth quarter of 2008. Those orders were 26 percent lower in unit sales, and brought in revenue 33 percent lower than the same period during 2007.
The drop is a dramatic letdown from 2007, which ended on a high note, with orders 24 percent higher than in 2006.
Data for the study came from sales reports submitted by the group’s 275 members—North American companies, most of them robot manufacturers, component suppliers and integrators selling industrial automation equipment to manufacturers.
RIA executive vice president Jeffrey Burnstein blamed the drop on an overall weakness in the automotive and heavy manufacturing industries. Orders from automakers for supplies and parts dropped 37 percent during 2008, Burnstein said. The auto industry accounts for 51 percent of all RIA sales, according to association figures.
Sales outside the auto industry were looking up, with an increase in orders of nine percent compared to 2007. The largest increase was in the semiconductor/electronics market, which increased orders 63 percent, followed by orders from plastics and rubber companies at 39 percent.
While still trailing in total unit sales, non-automotive sales topped sales to the auto industry for the first time ever, Burnstein said.
Though RIA members reported revenue of $997 billion from North American companies for 2008, the global market for industrial robotics products is far higher. The International Federation of Robotics estimates that total global spending on robotics topped $18 billion. The vast bulk of that went for the kind of industrial robotics RIA companies manufactures, other categories are growing much faster than the 4 percent per year at which the IFR
The Japan Robotics Association estimates the market for personal and lifestyle robots—which include everything from Roomba vacuum cleaners to robot toys—totalled about $3 billion in 2008 and will top $15 billion by 2015. Wintergreen Research estimates defense industry spent $441 million on robots in 2007, and will increase spending to $43.7 billion by 2014. Medical and surgical robotics products generated about $626.5 million in 2007 and will grow to $14 billion by 2014, according to Wintergreen.
Sales of industrial robots have dropped significantly in Korea and Japan, according to the IFR, which identifies the two as among the most robot-dependent economies on Earth. Growth in China (14 percent) and India (11 percent) slowed during the first half of 2008, but not enough to offset their enormous growth. Europe also increased its purchases of robots in 2007, by 15 percent, as part of an effort to further automate automotive manufacturing.
As the global recession and contraction of the global automotive industry slows robot sales there, however, the IFR expects growth to pick up in the metalworking industry, beverages, glass, pharmaceutical, medical devices and photovoltaic industries.
That bodes well for U.S.-based robot manufacturers, according to Tammy Mulcahy of ABB Robotics, the chair of RIA’s Statistics Committee.
Despite the current difficulties in the automotive industry, there is reason for optimism, even for the chance to sell more robots to auto manufacturers, let alone the rest of the industrial world, said Tammy Mulcahy of ABB Robotics, Chair of RIA’s Statistics Committee.
“In times of rising energy costs and rising environmental awareness, the demand for smaller, more economical, environmentally friendly and lower cost cars, are becoming increasingly important,” Mulcahy said in an RIA statement that accompanied the report. “I am sure the automotive industry will introduce new cars with less consumption, reduced emission and innovative technology. This will require new automation technology throughout the value chain. Robotics will surely benefit from such investments.”